# NCAAM ELO Game Predictions for 2026-03-29 - @grdavis
Below are predictions for today's Men's college basketball games using an ELO rating methodology. Check out the full [college-basketball-elo](https://github.com/grdavis/college-basketball-elo) repository on github to see methodology and more.

Note: Teams with * or those written as abbreviations (e.g. BREC) are likely new to the model (i.e. they haven't played any/many D1 games) and predictions are more uncertain.

|   Neutral | Away      | Away Win Prob.   |   Away Pred. Spread |   Live Away Spread | Home     | Home Win Prob.   |   Home Pred. Spread |   Abs. Pred. Diff. |
|----------:|:----------|:-----------------|--------------------:|-------------------:|:---------|:-----------------|--------------------:|-------------------:|
|         1 | Tennessee | 27%              |                 6.9 |                7.5 | Michigan | 73%              |                -6.9 |                0.6 |
|         1 | UConn     | 30%              |                 6   |                5.5 | Duke     | 70%              |                -6   |                0.5 |

# Top 100 Teams by ELO Rating
|     | Team               |   Elo Rating |   7 Day Change |
|----:|:-------------------|-------------:|---------------:|
|   1 | Arizona            |         2201 |            +43 |
|   2 | Michigan           |         2172 |            +14 |
|   3 | Duke               |         2172 |            +10 |
|   4 | Illinois           |         2068 |            +41 |
|   5 | Florida            |         2067 |            -19 |
|   6 | Houston            |         2058 |            -29 |
|   7 | St. John's (NY)    |         2044 |             -4 |
|   8 | Purdue             |         2043 |             -3 |
|   9 | UConn              |         2023 |            +39 |
|  10 | Arkansas           |         2007 |            -19 |
|  11 | Tennessee          |         2000 |            +55 |
|  12 | Michigan State     |         1999 |            -15 |
|  13 | Iowa State         |         1996 |            -15 |
|  14 | Alabama            |         1992 |            +21 |
|  15 | Vanderbilt         |         1981 |             +0 |
|  16 | Gonzaga            |         1953 |             +0 |
|  17 | Virginia           |         1935 |            -20 |
|  18 | Wisconsin          |         1928 |             +0 |
|  19 | Nebraska           |         1913 |            -22 |
|  20 | UCLA               |         1908 |            -25 |
|  21 | Texas Tech         |         1899 |            -34 |
|  22 | Kansas             |         1898 |             -6 |
|  23 | Ohio State         |         1888 |             +0 |
|  24 | Iowa               |         1885 |            +28 |
|  25 | Louisville         |         1877 |             +0 |
|  26 | Saint Mary's       |         1874 |             +0 |
|  27 | Kentucky           |         1873 |            -20 |
|  28 | Oklahoma           |         1873 |             +0 |
|  29 | Utah State         |         1870 |             -7 |
|  30 | TCU                |         1869 |             +0 |
|  31 | Cincinnati         |         1858 |             +0 |
|  32 | Texas              |         1854 |             -5 |
|  33 | VCU                |         1852 |             +0 |
|  34 | Texas A&M          |         1840 |             +0 |
|  35 | BYU                |         1839 |             +0 |
|  36 | UNC                |         1834 |             +0 |
|  37 | Miami (FL)         |         1833 |             -9 |
|  38 | Santa Clara        |         1832 |             +0 |
|  39 | South Florida      |         1821 |             +0 |
|  40 | New Mexico         |         1815 |            +25 |
|  41 | Auburn             |         1812 |            +13 |
|  42 | Villanova          |         1811 |             +0 |
|  43 | Saint Louis        |         1799 |             +0 |
|  44 | Georgia            |         1799 |             +0 |
|  45 | Clemson            |         1794 |             +0 |
|  46 | San Diego State    |         1794 |             +0 |
|  47 | Wichita State      |         1773 |            +47 |
|  48 | Missouri           |         1772 |             +0 |
|  49 | UCF                |         1767 |             +0 |
|  50 | Tulsa              |         1764 |            +27 |
|  51 | Akron              |         1763 |             +0 |
|  52 | Indiana            |         1762 |             +0 |
|  53 | Dayton             |         1761 |            -35 |
|  54 | McNeese State      |         1751 |             +0 |
|  55 | NC State           |         1746 |             +0 |
|  56 | Northwestern       |         1744 |             +0 |
|  57 | Florida State      |         1740 |             +0 |
|  58 | West Virginia      |         1739 |             +0 |
|  59 | Marquette          |         1739 |             +0 |
|  60 | Miami (OH)         |         1739 |             +0 |
|  61 | Arizona State      |         1739 |             +0 |
|  62 | Grand Canyon       |         1739 |             +0 |
|  63 | Baylor             |         1737 |             +0 |
|  64 | Ole Miss           |         1736 |             +0 |
|  65 | High Point         |         1735 |             +0 |
|  66 | Northern Iowa      |         1734 |             +0 |
|  67 | Seton Hall         |         1734 |             +0 |
|  68 | Washington         |         1728 |             +0 |
|  69 | Stanford           |         1728 |             +0 |
|  70 | Boise State        |         1722 |             +0 |
|  71 | Colorado           |         1719 |             +0 |
|  72 | Creighton          |         1713 |             +0 |
|  73 | SMU                |         1708 |             +0 |
|  74 | Nevada             |         1705 |             -8 |
|  75 | Minnesota          |         1702 |             +0 |
|  76 | St. Joseph's       |         1699 |             -2 |
|  77 | Illinois State     |         1697 |            +54 |
|  78 | Colorado State     |         1693 |             +0 |
|  79 | Georgetown         |         1692 |             +0 |
|  80 | UNLV               |         1690 |            -15 |
|  81 | Oklahoma State     |         1690 |            -59 |
|  82 | Belmont            |         1688 |             +0 |
|  83 | Hofstra            |         1681 |             +0 |
|  84 | California Baptist |         1678 |             +0 |
|  85 | Virginia Tech      |         1677 |             +0 |
|  86 | Rutgers            |         1671 |             +0 |
|  87 | Utah Valley        |         1670 |             +0 |
|  88 | Oregon             |         1667 |             +0 |
|  89 | USC                |         1666 |             +0 |
|  90 | Yale               |         1665 |             +0 |
|  91 | Providence         |         1664 |             +0 |
|  92 | Wake Forest        |         1662 |            -20 |
|  93 | Maryland           |         1656 |             +0 |
|  94 | California         |         1656 |            -11 |
|  95 | Mississippi State  |         1653 |             +0 |
|  96 | UC-Irvine          |         1641 |             +0 |
|  97 | North Dakota State |         1639 |             +0 |
|  98 | Xavier             |         1639 |             +0 |
|  99 | Bradley            |         1637 |             +0 |
| 100 | Pitt               |         1630 |             +0 |