Below are predictions for today's MLB games using an ELO rating methodology. Check out the full mlb-elo-advantage repository on github to see methodology and more.
The thresholds indicate at what odds the model thinks there is value in betting on a team. These thresholds were selected via backtesting over the last 2 years (2.7K games). For transparency, these recommendations have been triggered for 14% of games and have a 24.79% ROI over the last 7 days. ROI is 32.23% over the last 30 days and 0.57% over the last 365.
| Date | Away | Home | Away WinP | Home WinP | Away ML | Away Threshold | Home ML | Home Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-27 | WSN | NYY | 34.64 | 65.36 | 216 | +220 | -268 | -143 |
| 2025-08-27 | TBD | CLE | 50.02 | 49.98 | -155 | +122 | 129 | +122 |
| 2025-08-27 | ATL | FLA | 50.18 | 49.82 | -136 | +121 | 111 | +123 |
| 2025-08-27 | SDP | SEA | 49.01 | 50.99 | 117 | +126 | -142 | +118 |
| 2025-08-27 | BOS | BAL | 53.68 | 46.32 | -143 | +107 | 118 | +140 |
| 2025-08-27 | MIN | TOR | 39.49 | 60.51 | 152 | +181 | -182 | -120 |
| 2025-08-27 | PHI | NYM | 49.48 | 50.52 | 129 | +124 | -157 | +120 |
| 2025-08-27 | KCR | CHW | 56.48 | 43.52 | -132 | -104 | 108 | +155 |
| 2025-08-27 | ARI | MIL | 35.37 | 64.63 | 119 | +214 | -149 | -139 |
| 2025-08-27 | PIT | STL | 47.76 | 52.24 | 149 | +132 | -183 | +112 |
| 2025-08-27 | ANA | TEX | 39.21 | 60.79 | 129 | +183 | -158 | -121 |
| 2025-08-27 | COL | HOU | 31.82 | 68.18 | 245 | +249 | -313 | -159 |
| 2025-08-27 | CIN | LAD | 41.17 | 58.83 | 168 | +170 | -208 | -113 |
| 2025-08-27 | CHC | SFG | 53.76 | 46.24 | -131 | +106 | 108 | +140 |
| 2025-08-27 | DET | OAK | 51.75 | 48.25 | -131 | +114 | 107 | +130 |
This table summarizes each team's Elo rating and their chances of making it to various stages of the postseason based on 11312 simulations of the rest of the regular season and playoffs
| Team | Elo Rating | 7-Day Change | 30-Day Change | Playoffs | Win Division | Reach Div. Rd. | Reach CS | Reach WS | Win WS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIL | 1581 | -4 | 19 | 100.00% | 96.99% | 98.97% | 64.42% | 43.69% | 32.63% |
| 2 | LAD | 1552 | 4 | 5 | 99.96% | 78.82% | 82.30% | 46.24% | 20.13% | 12.69% |
| 3 | CHC | 1543 | 3 | 1 | 99.98% | 3.01% | 56.02% | 20.20% | 10.63% | 6.27% |
| 4 | SDP | 1537 | 0 | 17 | 99.20% | 21.15% | 53.15% | 21.84% | 9.74% | 5.80% |
| 5 | PHI | 1535 | -7 | -5 | 99.83% | 97.06% | 71.34% | 33.19% | 11.85% | 6.71% |
| 6 | NYY | 1530 | -1 | 3 | 85.41% | 9.25% | 49.79% | 25.79% | 14.57% | 5.67% |
| 7 | BOS | 1530 | 8 | 18 | 65.51% | 2.93% | 35.19% | 18.14% | 9.78% | 3.64% |
| 8 | TOR | 1527 | 1 | 0 | 99.64% | 87.73% | 93.20% | 48.92% | 26.28% | 9.47% |
| 9 | SEA | 1524 | 4 | 4 | 96.53% | 69.96% | 78.47% | 42.57% | 21.35% | 7.42% |
| 10 | NYM | 1519 | 12 | -8 | 59.22% | 2.94% | 23.98% | 9.26% | 2.78% | 1.33% |
| 11 | TEX | 1516 | 7 | -6 | 28.12% | 2.41% | 13.59% | 6.35% | 3.21% | 1.03% |
| 12 | KCR | 1511 | -5 | 11 | 42.53% | 20.95% | 21.98% | 9.85% | 4.17% | 1.24% |
| 13 | CIN | 1510 | -8 | 2 | 25.15% | 0.00% | 8.70% | 3.18% | 0.79% | 0.34% |
| 14 | DET | 1510 | -3 | 3 | 85.52% | 76.76% | 53.48% | 24.19% | 10.11% | 2.87% |
| 15 | HOU | 1507 | -3 | -13 | 83.49% | 27.61% | 48.92% | 21.96% | 9.59% | 2.40% |
| 16 | TBD | 1506 | 7 | -4 | 7.89% | 0.10% | 3.32% | 1.48% | 0.65% | 0.27% |
| 17 | SFG | 1497 | 8 | 1 | 14.29% | 0.04% | 4.76% | 1.39% | 0.33% | 0.13% |
| 18 | ARI | 1497 | 1 | -10 | 1.88% | 0.00% | 0.64% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.03% |
| 19 | ATL | 1493 | -2 | 7 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 20 | CLE | 1486 | -10 | -9 | 4.75% | 2.24% | 1.82% | 0.68% | 0.27% | 0.06% |
| 21 | BAL | 1484 | -7 | 2 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 22 | OAK | 1478 | 3 | 22 | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 23 | MIN | 1473 | -5 | -13 | 0.14% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 24 | PIT | 1473 | 8 | 3 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 25 | FLA | 1471 | -5 | -11 | 0.48% | 0.00% | 0.14% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 26 | STL | 1469 | -7 | -24 | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 27 | ANA | 1460 | -4 | -3 | 0.44% | 0.02% | 0.18% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.02% |
| 28 | CHW | 1446 | 9 | 8 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 29 | WSN | 1440 | -4 | -13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 30 | COL | 1395 | -2 | -8 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |