college-basketball-elo

NCAAM ELO Game Predictions for 2025-11-05 - @grdavis

Below are predictions for today's Men's college basketball games using an ELO rating methodology. Check out the full college-basketball-elo repository on github to see methodology and more.

Note: Teams with * or those written as abbreviations (e.g. BREC) are likely new to the model (i.e. they haven't played any/many D1 games) and predictions are more uncertain.

Neutral Away Away Win Prob. Away Pred. Spread Live Away Spread Home Home Win Prob. Home Pred. Spread
0 Rider 6% 19.2 20.5 Rutgers 94% -19.2
0 Coppin State 10% 15.3 15.5 La Salle 90% -15.3
0 Southern Indiana 4% 21.7 21.5 Butler 96% -21.7
0 Lynchburg* 5% 21.3 NL Queens (NC) 95% -21.3
0 Delaware State 15% 12 17.5 Temple 85% -12
0 Maryland-Eastern Shore 2% 29.1 30.5 Georgia 98% -29.1
0 South Dakota 5% 20.9 28.5 Creighton 95% -20.9
0 Tarleton State 13% 13.2 17.5 LSU 87% -13.2
0 Southern 5% 21.4 25.5 Marquette 95% -21.4
0 Alabama A&M 2% 28.6 27.5 Indiana 98% -28.6
0 North Dakota State 43% 1.9 3.5 UC-Davis 57% -1.9
0 North Alabama 10% 15.4 24.5 Mississippi State 90% -15.4
0 USC Upstate 17% 11.4 9.5 Fresno State 83% -11.4
0 East Texas A&M 1% 29.5 21.5 New Mexico 99% -29.5
0 Life Pacific 4% 22.3 NL Pacific 96% -22.3
0 Eastern Washington 19% 10.4 7.5 Loyola Marymount 81% -10.4

Top 50 Teams by ELO Rating

Team Elo Rating 7 Day Change
1 Houston 2027 -129
2 Florida 2013 -148
3 Auburn 1988 -77
4 Duke 1963 -154
5 Alabama 1959 -59
6 Michigan State 1954 -77
7 Tennessee 1951 -56
8 Arizona 1933 -20
9 Maryland 1922 -59
10 St. John's (NY) 1918 -94
11 Texas Tech 1914 -64
12 BYU 1890 -42
13 Wisconsin 1890 -38
14 Michigan 1883 -31
15 Kentucky 1869 -7
16 Ole Miss 1868 -7
17 Purdue 1866 -22
18 UConn 1865 -68
19 Oregon 1864 -26
20 Illinois 1861 -21
21 Iowa State 1861 -34
22 Texas A&M 1860 -2
23 Arkansas 1856 -0
24 UCLA 1848 -17
25 Creighton 1844 -56
26 Missouri 1827 +17
27 Colorado State 1826 -96
28 Baylor 1825 -14
29 Gonzaga 1824 -129
30 Georgia 1815 +22
31 Kansas 1814 -6
32 Oklahoma 1814 +23
33 Marquette 1811 -33
34 Louisville 1807 -69
35 Xavier 1805 -33
36 Mississippi State 1804 +26
37 Indiana 1799 +9
38 Northwestern 1799 +11
39 Nebraska 1799 +11
40 Saint Mary's 1796 -108
41 New Mexico 1794 -84
42 Penn State 1788 +18
43 UNC 1787 -64
44 Clemson 1786 -62
45 Iowa 1781 +37
46 USC 1777 +35
47 Ohio State 1776 +24
48 Texas 1772 +30
49 Vanderbilt 1770 +66
50 VCU 1768 -94